Zoellick sounds caution over rebound

    Barack Obama’s first trip to Asia as US president could almost have been designed to underline the dramatic shift of economic power from west to east that has been accelerated by the global financial crisis.
    Mr Obama leaves economically depressed Washington for ①a region recovering so fast that Robert Zoellick，the World Bank president，thought it necessary yesterday to warn its central banks to start thinking about how to choke off asset bubbles.
    Mr Zoellick said on the margins of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in Singapore：“Traditionally the central banks in east Asia will follow the [US] Federal Reserve because if they ②raise interest rates [independently]，that will draw capital and appreciate their currencies.
    “In the US and Europe，because things are still relatively weak，I don’t see any likely inflationary effects at this stage. In east Asia，if you start to get a strong rebound in growth and you’ve got a lot of liquidity，there is a question of whether you start to face asset bubbles，”he said.
    Mr Zoellick drew attention to Australia’s decision to raise interest rates last week for the second time in a month，noting that its economy was“very linked”to east Asia，but said central banks should consider administrative action to restrict credit as well as the timing of interest rate rises.
    The World Bank president’s warning followed a dramatic ③about-face on Asia’s growth prospects by the International Monetary Fund，which was clearly taken by surprise by the region’s strong performance in the past six months.
    In a big upgrade，the IMF more than doubled its forecast for Asian economic growth this year to 2.8 per cent and raised its prediction for 2010 to 5.8 per cent. The World Bank upped the ante further last week，forecasting growth of 7.8 per cent for east Asia and the Pacific next year.
    That reading was buttressed yesterday by fresh figures from Japan，South Korea and China，by far the world’s best performing big economy，which was already on course for economic growth of at least 8 per cent this year.
    Beijing said industrial output rose in October at the fastest pace since March，while retail sales and fixed investment also rose sharply. In South Korea，unemployment fell from 3.6 per cent in September to 3.4 per cent in October，a nine-month low，as transport and telecommunications companies and banks boosted recruitment.
    Record profits at the conglomerates that dominate South Korea’s economy are bringing rosy forecasts. Yoon Jeung-hyun，the finance minister，has said the economy might expand this year，reversing an earlier prediction. Some private sector forecasters are even more bullish. ING，the Dutch bank，thinks gross domestic product will rise 5.3 per cent next year，up from its forecast of 0.1 per cent this year.
    Even in Japan，a growth ④laggard，core machinery orders，excluding volatile purchases，grew twice as fast as expected in September，said the cabinet office.
    The Japanese numbers attracted rare praise from the US. Tim Geithner，the Treasury secretary，said in Tokyo that attempts to boost domestic demand by the new government of Yukio Hatoyama were“very encouraging”for the world economy.
    Mr Obama is expected to reiterate that message，⑤in line with the agreement by the Group of 20 economies that countries running big trade surpluses need to boost domestic consumption to reduce reliance on exports to the west，while countries running big deficits need to save more and consume less.

    譯文梗概

    佐利克：東亞小心泡沫

    巴拉克·奧巴馬(BarackObama)就任美國總統(tǒng)以來的首次亞洲之行，幾乎就是為了彰顯全球經(jīng)濟(jì)權(quán)力從西方向東方的戲劇性轉(zhuǎn)移——此輪全球金融危機(jī)加速了轉(zhuǎn)移的步伐。
    奧巴馬將從經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣的華盛頓出發(fā)，前往一個(gè)復(fù)蘇極其迅速的地區(qū)——其速度之快，使得世界銀行(WorldBank)行長羅伯特·佐利克(RobertZoellick)認(rèn)為，有必要向一些央行提出警告，讓它們開始考慮如何抑制資產(chǎn)泡沫的問題。
    佐利克表示：“東亞的銀行傳統(tǒng)上會追隨美聯(lián)儲，因?yàn)槿绻�它�?獨(dú)自)提高利率，將會吸引資本流入，從而導(dǎo)致其本幣升值�！彼�說：“在美國和歐洲，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)仍相對疲弱，當(dāng)前階段我沒有看到任何潛在的通脹效應(yīng)。在東亞，如果經(jīng)濟(jì)增長開始強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇，又加上擁有大量流動(dòng)性，那么你就存在是否已經(jīng)開始面臨資產(chǎn)泡沫這個(gè)問題�！�
    佐利克發(fā)出上述警告之前，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)大幅改變了其對亞洲增長前景的預(yù)測。亞洲地區(qū)過去6個(gè)月的強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn)，顯然令I(lǐng)MF感到吃驚。
    IMF將今年亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期上調(diào)了逾一倍，至2.8%，并將明年的預(yù)期調(diào)高至5.8%。世界銀行上周則更進(jìn)一步，預(yù)測東亞及太平洋地區(qū)明年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率將達(dá)到7.8%。
    來自日本、韓國和中國的最新經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)為上述預(yù)測提供了支撐。中國是迄今全球表現(xiàn)最好的大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體——正朝著今年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長至少8%的目標(biāo)挺進(jìn)。
    預(yù)計(jì)奧巴馬會重申以下信息：擁有巨額貿(mào)易順差的國家需要推動(dòng)國內(nèi)消費(fèi)，以減輕對西方的依賴；而擁有巨額貿(mào)易逆差的國家則需要增加儲蓄，減少消費(fèi)。

（文章來源：FT中文網(wǎng)）

    點(diǎn)評

    ①a region recovering so fast that結(jié)構(gòu)中，recovering是現(xiàn)在分詞，相當(dāng)于一個(gè)定語從句，a region that/which is recovering…；so+adj.+that結(jié)構(gòu)，意為“如此…以至于…”用來引出后面的結(jié)果狀語從句。assetbubbles意為“資產(chǎn)泡沫”。
    ②raise和appreciate都能用來表示“增加，增值”的意思，表示提高利率、成本、薪金等通常用raise，而“升值貨幣”則用appreciate更為地道，其名詞形式是appreciation，反義詞是depreciation，意為貶值。
    ③about-face，主要用于軍事語境中，a turn made so as to face the opposite direction，即向后轉(zhuǎn)，在這里意為a complete change of opinion or policy，即觀點(diǎn)的大幅轉(zhuǎn)變。
    ④laggard，“落后的”，其動(dòng)詞形式是lag，可用來表示經(jīng)濟(jì)增長“滯后”，與上一段中的expand詞義相反。
    ⑤in line with為“與…一致”的意思，相當(dāng)于in accordance with。